Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 33.311766 35.955646 38.828352 42.203385 46.088704 50.456973 55.791309
2025-04-27 30.007987 33.654969 37.886382 43.241244 49.962828 58.305004 69.760984
2025-05-04 27.844187 32.027751 37.101611 43.869512 52.932639 65.103698 83.603609
2025-05-11 25.888628 30.315231 35.857440 43.544890 54.368283 69.867740 95.609657
2025-05-18 24.251274 28.794154 34.625839 42.973757 55.227481 73.782044 107.223761
2025-05-25 22.795635 27.362195 33.341672 42.122521 55.466954 76.670049 117.845641
2025-06-01 21.547972 26.100239 32.161061 41.257608 55.507488 79.154670 128.447742
2025-06-08 20.369007 24.847872 30.889655 40.116973 54.933077 80.430523 136.987310
2025-06-15 20.017265 24.688871 31.121022 41.220011 58.099111 88.976095 165.490584
2025-06-22 19.327818 24.015405 30.559700 41.032371 59.038077 93.480726 186.573761
2025-06-29 18.555527 23.182544 29.709419 40.305434 58.923042 95.813963 203.014204
2025-07-06 17.739419 22.249010 28.657119 39.167993 57.929242 96.088725 213.377528
2025-07-13 17.542999 22.214227 28.974145 40.352998 61.500876 107.597064 273.909503
2025-07-20 17.286657 22.079479 29.131344 41.289744 64.771875 119.614358 356.497147
2025-07-27 16.966175 21.830287 29.089691 41.870588 67.418548 131.070493 464.158630
2025-08-03 16.477270 21.305265 28.579702 41.569787 68.159910 137.552861 561.767838
2025-08-10 15.975521 20.738957 27.972173 41.040411 68.327513 142.443780 668.411833
2025-08-17 15.453882 20.122164 27.252748 40.250789 67.810747 145.072023 769.538326
2025-08-24 14.961881 19.533149 26.551924 39.447706 67.169464 147.165978 883.892020
2025-08-31 14.447036 18.892650 25.741051 38.387409 65.814362 146.470786 961.057383
2025-09-07 14.364891 18.914318 26.018118 39.412779 69.562631 165.830919 1753.311908
2025-09-14 14.062685 18.582259 25.689368 39.238442 70.350948 174.390366 2666.035516
2025-09-21 13.685835 18.121438 25.125050 38.562691 69.784600 177.147160 3592.329229